When preparing to host Hayfin’s North American clients at our annual US AGM in New York last month, we knew three topics would be at the forefront of their thinking: software, retail redemptions and the Iran conflict. The discussion became a timely test of how private credit managers can demonstrate that they are the right partners to help investors navigate market volatility.

New AI models have triggered a repricing of business durability in the face of accelerating disruption, prompting LPs to examine their GPs’ exposure to potential losses in software, where private credit is often seen as heavily concentrated. At the same time, a surge in redemptions and gating in some US semi-liquid private credit vehicles has forced price discovery and raised the prospect of supply shocks. Finally, despite the fragile ceasefire reached in April, tensions in the Middle East continue to ripple through supply chains, commodities pricing and energy markets.

These three trends are playing out differently on either side of the Atlantic. In the case of the first two, the impact should in theory be more muted in Europe. Software is a smaller part of European lending than in the US, where it accounts for an estimated 20–25% of private credit activity. In Europe, higher-risk ARR lending to pre-profit software businesses with unclear paths to deleveraging is far less prevalent. Similarly, while retail capital has grown to 20–25% of global private credit AUM, withdrawals have been concentrated in US Business Development Company (BDC) and interval fund structures rather than in European vehicles, which are still relatively nascent.

But Europe is unquestionably more exposed to geopolitical risk – at least from the specific perspective of disruptions to energy supply and the resulting increase in inflation.

Is your money safe?

In all three cases, the first question that LPs should be asking their private credit managers is how they will preserve capital, protect value and limit downside risk within their existing portfolios.

We have previously explained why we remain underweight software across both our Private Credit and High-Yield & Syndicated Loans businesses. Our software exposure across Direct Lending portfolios is less than 6%, and below 5% in our latest vintage, which compares favourably with peers.

We have managed that exposure through prudent portfolio diversification and a clear view that software is not only potentially vulnerable to generative AI disruption, but also one of the most competitive parts of the market. Where we are invested, those loans are to large, mature, high-growth companies backed by sector specialist GPs. We have grounded our credit judgment in traditional credit metrics rather than uncertain enterprise value assumptions.

Uncertainty is not an environment we are waiting to pass. It is the environment we are built for.

We are similarly well placed on liquidity. Hayfin’s private credit strategies rely exclusively on fully locked-up institutional drawdown funds, with no retail capital. We had already been seeing growing demand for institutional vintage solutions that operate as drawdown vehicles, with redemptions achieved through natural portfolio run-off rather than forced asset sales. That trend now looks set to accelerate.

No manager, least of all one investing in Europe, can be fully insulated from the effects of conflict involving Iran. We saw during Covid and in the early stages of the war in Ukraine how shocks to energy, transport and agricultural supply chains can quickly spread through interconnected markets. Higher energy, fertiliser and freight costs would feed into food prices and create broader inflationary pressure.

Our dedicated Maritime team, with 15 industry specialists, more than $4 billion deployed and over 100 vessels acquired, gives us added insight into how global supply chains are being affected.

Where can managers create an edge?

The second question LPs should ask their GPs is how they are positioned to capitalise on these market dislocations. Throughout Hayfin’s history, periods like these have created the conditions for us to grow, gain market share, deepen relationships with borrowers and LPs, and deliver some of our best-performing investment vintages. Uncertainty is not an environment we are waiting to pass. It is the environment we are built for.

The obvious counterargument is that the private credit industry as a whole tends to gain market share from banks and syndicated markets during periods of disruption. The more important question, then, is what positions us to deliver compelling investment returns in a more uncertain environment relative to our competitors.

Our European focus is certainly an advantage. We consider ourselves the European home team, with 17 years of track record and a platform built to operate across fragmented jurisdictions, languages and legal regimes. The distinctive, longstanding opportunity set in Europe, as we have previously discussed, certainly still applies. There remains room for further growth, with the UK and EU’s combined GDP totaling 90% of the US, but with private markets just one third of the size. Additionally, as a shallower market than the US, Europe can reprice quicker in environments like this.

Hayfin’s adaptability and ‘one-firm’ culture, both of which I described earlier this year, are also well-suited for the current landscape. Our broad set of complementary strategies allows us to finance both growth and stress, and to lean into the parts of the market offering the best risk-adjusted returns, as this rapidly shifts around us. By operating in a de-siloed, integrated manner, when markets “flash amber”, we draw on the insights and experience of the whole team to re‑underwrite portfolios, reassess risks and recalibrate pipelines.

Recent market stresses will also affect future investment vintages. One potential second‑order effect of the recent strains in US private credit is that both LPs and borrowers will increasingly favour managers with more conservative approaches to fund structuring. US lenders might pull back from European markets, tipping competitive dynamics in favour of homegrown European managers with more institutional capital.

Patient capital – at scale

Many of the themes discussed here are only beginning to play out. We will remain patient, focusing first on supporting our existing borrowers as the market comes to us.

At the same time, we are preparing to invest selectively through our Tactical Solutions, Special Opportunities and Private Equity Solutions strategies. In these areas, choppier markets and a rising tide of €300 billion in net asset value without sponsor capital support are likely to drive demand for hybrid liquidity solutions.

With a significant undrawn capital position of c. €7bn today, we have the scale and firepower to capitalise on the opportunities that may present themselves in the months ahead.